Oil Demand to Rise Till 2040 as Energy Transition Slows
By MD Rubel islam: Global Finance News
November 4, 2025 | 7:31 PM GMT+6 | Updated
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| TotalEnergies’ annual energy outlook report projects global oil demand rising through 2040 amid slower energy transition and climate goal challenges. |
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TotalEnergies’ 2025 Energy Outlook Report: Oil Demand to Keep Rising Until 2040 Amid Slower Energy Transition and Global Climate Goal Challenges
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TotalEnergies Sees Oil Demand Rising Through 2040 as Energy Transition Slows
Paris, France – November 4, 2025
French energy giant TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) has projected that global oil demand will continue to rise through 2040, defying earlier expectations of a peak before then. In its latest energy outlook report, the company revealed that concerns over energy security, rising costs, and political fragmentation are slowing down the energy transition toward renewables.
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Oil Demand Rising Until 2040
According to TotalEnergies’ 2025 annual energy outlook, the world’s oil demand will remain strong for at least another 15 years. The report forecasts 98 million barrels per day (bpd) consumption in 2050, a significant rise from last year’s projection of 90 million bpd.
CEO Patrick Pouyanne explained that the company has revised its oil production forecast upwards to reflect real-world changes — including lagging electric vehicle sales, renewed coal plant installations in Asia, and a rollback of green subsidies under U.S. President Donald Trump.
“We can present a Paris-aligned scenario, but the probability of its success is diminishing because the international coordination required is not what we see today,” Pouyanne said during a press briefing in Paris.
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Energy Transition Faces Major Setbacks
The energy transition — the shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy — has slowed significantly in recent years. Factors such as geopolitical instability, supply chain issues, and inflation have made countries prioritize energy security over climate action.
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In the momentum scenario, oil demand could reach 79 million barrels per day by 2050, compared with last year’s forecast of 70 million bpd. The rupture scenario, which aligns with the Paris Agreement and global climate goals, predicts a drop to 55 million bpd, still higher than the 44 million estimated last year.
Paris Agreement Goals “Out of Reach”
Despite the ambitious climate goals set under the Paris Agreement, TotalEnergies’ CEO believes those targets are now “out of reach.”
The company’s report cites political fragmentation, uneven renewable energy adoption, and the slow pace of international coordination as key obstacles.
Pouyanne highlighted that while renewable energy investment has grown, it still falls short of replacing fossil fuels fast enough to achieve the carbon emissions reduction required to keep global warming below 1.5°C.
Why Energy Security Is Taking Priority
Recent years have seen multiple energy crises driven by conflicts and supply disruptions. Many governments, especially in Asia’s energy market, are turning back to coal and oil to maintain energy security and prevent price shocks.
This short-term focus on affordability and availability has shifted attention away from long-term ESG trends and sustainability efforts.
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The Reuters Sustainable Switch newsletter, which tracks corporate and governmental sustainability moves, noted a growing divergence between stated climate goals and actual policy decisions worldwide.
The Role of the United States and Policy Shifts
The U.S. energy sector has also played a critical role in shaping the global oil landscape. The green subsidies rollback and renewed LNG (liquefied natural gas) licenses under President Donald Trump have encouraged fossil fuel expansion.
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While the U.S. government promotes energy independence, these policies have led to slower renewable energy transition momentum globally, impacting TotalEnergies’ projections.
TotalEnergies’ Position in the Global Energy Sector
As one of the world’s leading energy companies, TotalEnergies continues to diversify its portfolio, balancing fossil fuels with renewable energy projects. However, the company remains realistic about global demand trends.
At the Hyvolution exhibition in Paris, where the TotalEnergies logo stood beside hydrogen prototypes and solar solutions, executives reiterated that the company’s long-term vision includes both oil and low-carbon technologies.
> “We’re not abandoning renewables — but we have to be pragmatic. The world still depends on oil,” said Pouyanne.
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Global Warming and the Path Forward
While global warming remains a major concern, the energy outlook report suggests that market realities, rather than policy ambitions, will dictate the pace of change.
TotalEnergies’ balanced approach aims to support energy prices, ensure supply stability, and gradually integrate renewable energy transition technologies like hydrogen, solar, and wind.
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Industry experts warn that if the current oil market outlook persists, the world may overshoot climate targets by several decades — making it harder to reverse long-term global warming effects.
Conclusion — A Realistic Energy Future
The TotalEnergies 2025 energy outlook report paints a sobering picture: the energy transition is slowing, oil demand is still rising, and Paris Agreement goals are slipping away.
Still, the company emphasizes that innovation, policy collaboration, and ESG-driven investment can help bridge the gap between energy security and sustainability.
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As the energy sector evolves, TotalEnergies stands at the crossroads of fossil fuels and renewable energy transition, pushing for a pragmatic path toward a balanced and stable future.
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